New Delhi: India faces a heightened risk of mass violence against civilians over the next two years, according to an annual global assessment released by the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, which ranks the country among the world’s most vulnerable to new outbreaks of large-scale killings.
India was placed fourth out of 168 countries assessed for the likelihood of intrastate mass killings, defined as the deliberate killing of at least 1,000 civilians within a year based on group identity such as religion, ethnicity, politics, or geography. More notably, it topped the list of countries at risk that are not already experiencing widespread violence.
The December 2025 report by the museum’s Early Warning Project estimates a 7.5% chance that India could see such violence before the end of 2026. Only Myanmar, Chad, and Sudan ranked higher. Myanmar and Sudan, however, are already grappling with ongoing mass killings, making India’s position stand out as a potential new flashpoint.
Researchers from the museum and Dartmouth College analysed decades of historical data to identify patterns preceding past episodes of mass violence. The model compares present-day conditions with those seen in countries in the year or two before mass killings began.
“Which countries today look most similar to countries that experienced mass killings in the past, in the year or two before those mass killings began?” the report said.
The assessment draws on more than 30 indicators, including population size, economic conditions, political freedoms, and the presence of armed conflict. Historically, the researchers noted, one or two countries experience new episodes of mass killing each year.
Lawrence Woocher, research director at the museum’s Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, said the project is intended to help governments and international organisations decide where to focus preventive efforts. “By heeding warning signs and taking early action, individuals and governments can save lives,” he wrote, noting that the Holocaust itself was preventable.
The report focuses only on the risk of new outbreaks, not on whether existing violence could worsen, a gap the researchers say often leaves emerging threats overlooked.
The authors cautioned that the findings should not be read as predictions. “Readers should keep in mind that our model is not causal,” the report said, adding that risk factors identified by the model do not necessarily trigger atrocities on their own.
The analysis relies on publicly available data from 2024, meaning developments in 2025 are not reflected. Data gaps may also limit accuracy in countries where access for observers is restricted.
For countries ranked in the top tier, including India, the report urged policymakers to reassess whether they are devoting enough attention to preventing mass atrocities. It recommended closer scrutiny of potential triggers such as elections, political instability, or large-scale protests, and called for country-specific strategies tailored to local conditions.
The Early Warning Project has published annual assessments since 2014. During that period, mass atrocities have occurred in several countries flagged as high risk, including the genocide against the Rohingya in Myanmar and large-scale civilian killings in South Sudan and Ethiopia. Even where warnings were issued, Woocher noted, they often failed to spur timely preventive action.
